OSTRO ENERGY · LIVE BRIEFING
…
April 2026
Perspectives on
Canadian Oil & Gas
Prices
A live, interactive briefing on market fundamentals and geopolitics shaping Canadian oil and gas prices.
Edward Ostrowski, P.Eng.
Ostro Energy Corporation · edward@ostro-energy.com
PART I
…
Part 01
Energy Basics
& Market Behaviour
How energy markets actually work, the mix, the fundamentals, the volatility, and the history that shapes today's prices.
OSTRO · 02 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART I · ENERGY BASICS
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Energy Types & Sources
Carbon fuels: 86% of global energy.
...and for good reasons.
Primary Energy Mix by Source
2024 · global · share of total
Fuel Characteristics for Power Systems
Comparative operating characteristics
| Fuel | Baseload | Dispatch | Inertia | Carbon-Free |
|---|
03 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART I · ENERGY BASICS
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Historical Crude Oil Prices
Price swings are a modern norm
Post WWII price stability gave way to volatility starting with the Arab oil embargo, which transitioned into more globally driven supply/demand dynamics into the 2000s.
1946 – latest published month · WTI · Hover for detail
PART I · ENERGY BASICS
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21st Century Crude Oil Prices
What is crude really worth?
Trends of nominal prices and inflation-adjusted (real) prices show how geopolitical and financial events are more impactful on prices than fundamental market forces.
Monthly · Jan 2000 – latest shared month
SOURCE · FRED WTISPLC · CPIAUCSL · REAL SERIES ANCHORED TO JAN 200005 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART I · ENERGY BASICS
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Global Crude Oil Prices
Benchmarks in lockstep.
…with revealing spreads along the way.
WCS · WTI DIFFERENTIAL
…
CAD/bbl, latest common month
Trans Mountain Expansion in mid-2024 narrowed Canada's heavy oil differential materially.
Annotations
SOURCE · PLATTS · ARGUS · CAD/BBL06 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART I · ENERGY BASICS
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N.A. Natural Gas Price History
Cdn gas at the back end of the pipe.
Monthly · 2016 – …
HENRY HUB · LATEST
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AECO · LATEST
…
AECO DISCOUNT TO HH
…
SOURCE · NGI · AECO-C · STATION 2 · CAD/MMBTU07 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART I · ENERGY BASICS
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Global Natural Gas Prices
Cdn gas really at the back end of the pipe.
JKM PEAK
$27.29
Euro gas crisis
DUTCH TTF PEAK
…
CAD/MMBtu
HENRY HUB PEAK
…
Modest lift from euro crisis
AECO PEAK
…
…so much for arbitrage
SOURCE · PLATTS · ICE · CAD/MMBTU08 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART II
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Part 02 / 04
Energy Supply.
Where the molecules come from, and why Canada's geography dictates where they can go.
OSTRO · APR 202609 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART II · ENERGY SUPPLY
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Crude supply
Global Oil Production · 2000 → 2024
The shale revolution reordered the top five. Scrub the year to watch the U.S. overtake Saudi Arabia in 2014 and Russia in 2018.
YEAR
2024
CONTROLS
20002024
CANADA · RANK THIS YEAR
#4
CANADA · KBPD
5,135
up from 2,692 in 2000
Source · EIA, BP Stat Review, Ostro analysis10 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART II · ENERGY SUPPLY
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Nat gas supply
Global Natural Gas Production
The U.S. is the world's largest gas producer by a wide margin. Canada sits fifth globally, but our export capacity is constrained by pipeline geography.
YEAR
2024
CONTROLS
20002024
US vs #2 GAP
38.9 Bcf/d
US minus Russia, this year
CANADA · BCF/D
18.7
Top-five supply base with LNG export upside emerging
Source · EIA, BP Stat Review11 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART II · ENERGY SUPPLY
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NGL supply
Global NGL Production
NGLs (ethane, propane, butane, pentanes) are a byproduct of rich gas. The U.S. dominates because of the wet Permian and Marcellus basins.
YEAR
2024
CONTROLS
20002024
US · KBPD
6,941
roughly 9× Canadian output
CANADA · KBPD
753
condensate premium inside NA
Source · EIA Monthly, BP12 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART III
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Part 03 / 04
Energy
Demand.
Where the molecules go. How growth, efficiency, and geography shape the five-year consumption curve.
OSTRO · APR 202613 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART III · ENERGY DEMAND
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Global oil demand
Top 10 Oil Consumers
Twenty-four years of consumption. The world's largest economies burn oil, and three of them are still accelerating. Scrub the timeline to see ranks shift.
YEAR
2024
CONTROLS
20002024
CHINA GROWTH
+252%
2000 → 2024 · now #1
CANADA · TODAY
2.33
mmbpd · we produce 2× what we burn
Source · 2025 EI Statistical Review of World Energy · mmbpd (crude + condensate + NGLs)14 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART III · ENERGY DEMAND
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Global gas demand
Top 10 Gas Consumers
China's gas consumption grew sixteen-fold since 2000. This is the demand curve LNG Canada is chasing.
YEAR
2024
CONTROLS
20002024
CHINA GROWTH
+1659%
2000 → 2024 · now #2
CANADA · TODAY
12.4
bcf/d · winter-heating dominant
Source · 2025 EI Statistical Review of World Energy · bcf/d15 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART III · ENERGY DEMAND
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Demand forecast challenge
Which Future is Real?
Four scenarios. Same starting point. Drastically different 2050s. The forecast you believe tells you what you'll build.
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND · SCENARIOS
mmbpd · 2020–2050 · IEA / OPEC / industry
HOVER FOR DETAIL
Source · IEA STEPS/APS/NZE (2024), OPEC WOO (2024), industry base case · illustrative16 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART III · ENERGY DEMAND
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What drives energy demand
Fundamentals vs. Politics.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) made a dramatic adjustment to its peak oil forecast when data could no longer support the narrative.
EVOLUTION OF THE PEAK OIL FORECAST
mmbpd · each line = a vintage forecast
THE FEEDBACK LOOP
Policy scenarios predict peak → governments write policy around that prediction → behaviour adjusts on the margin → forecasters revise the peak out, up, and later.
2023 STEPS
plateau ~2030
demand peaks then flattens
2025 CPS
growth to 2050
the peak keeps receding
Source · IEA STEPS (2023, 2024) · IEA CPS (2025) · illustrative alignment17 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART III · ENERGY DEMAND
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Fundamentals over politics
All Major Energy Sources Are Rising.
Sixty years of the data. Global primary energy nearly 4×. Every fuel, including the ones we're told are being phased out, is higher in absolute terms than it was a decade ago.
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY · 1965–2024
exajoules · by source
TOTAL · 2024
592 EJ
vs 150 in 1965 · 3.95×
CARBON FUELS
86%
of 2024 primary energy
RENEWABLES
additive
not substitutive, growing on top of the stack
Source · 2025 EI Statistical Review of World Energy · exajoules · primary energy18 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART III · ENERGY DEMAND
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What Really Drives Energy Demand?
Prosperity Requires Energy
GDP per capita plotted against energy use per capita. No high-income society operates on low energy consumption. As developing economies move up the prosperity curve, they remain the largest incremental source of long-term demand growth.
GDP PER CAPITA · ENERGY USE PER CAPITA · 2023
bubble size · population · hover for detail
DEVELOPING-ECONOMY DEMAND
China and India
Roughly 2.9 billion people are still moving up the prosperity curve. Even modest gains in per-capita energy use translate into very large incremental demand.
CANADA
~290 GJ/person
Among the world’s highest, reflecting climate, distance, and resource intensity.
IMPLICATION
The long-run demand story is not whether developing economies consume more energy. It is how quickly they move up the curve.
TAKEAWAY
Any serious demand outlook has to account for billions of people still moving toward higher living standards and higher energy consumption. That is the fundamental demand backdrop.
Source · World Bank (GDP) · EI Review (energy) · 2023 · GJ primary energy per capita19 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART III · ENERGY DEMAND
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AI demand growth
Bubble or Game Changer?
AI buildout is material, but the broader electricity-demand story still runs through industry, cooling, transport, and other end uses.
GLOBAL POWER DEMAND
Increase in electricity demand by sector, base case, 2024-2030
IEA · BASE CASE
TWh
05001,0001,500
2030
Industry excluding heavy industry
1,530
Other
1,310
Electric transport
840
Appliances
760
Space cooling
650
Data centres
530
Space and water heating
460
Heavy industry
400
Data centres are growing quickly, but the larger base-case gains still come from industry, transport, appliances, cooling, and other uses.
IEA · CC BY 4.0
BIG TECH AI CAPEX
Big Tech capex confirms AI demand is real
COMPANY GUIDANCE
Company
2026 capex
YoY
Amazon
$200B
+60%
Google
$180B
+97%
Meta
$125B
+73%
Microsoft
$117.5B
+41%
Tesla
$20B
+135%
Apple
$13B
+2%
Takeaway
AI matters, but it is not the whole demand story.
AI raises electricity demand materially, but the larger base-case increases still come from industry, transport, appliances, cooling, and other end uses.
Source · IEA · company guidance · 2025/202620 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART IV
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Part 04 / 04
Non-Market
Forces.
Geopolitics and government policy. Where fundamentals get overridden.
OSTRO · APR 202621 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART IV · GEOPOLITICS
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Geopolitical mental model
US & China Vying for Global Power.
Toggle between 2001 and 2023. Red = China is the largest trading partner. Blue = United States. In two decades, the map inverted.
LARGEST TRADING PARTNER · BY COUNTRY
source: IMF DOT · stylized
2001 · USA
#1 for 80%
of countries tracked. The unipolar moment, at its peak.
2023 · CHINA
#1 for 70%
of countries tracked. The inversion is near-complete across the global south.
ENERGY IMPLICATION
China trades with 70% of the world. Energy flows follow trade. Which buyer a barrel ultimately clears with is increasingly a Beijing question, not a Washington one.
Source · IMF DOT · Lowy Institute · 2024 · stylized hex grid22 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART IV · GEOPOLITICS
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Is China going green?
Is China Going Green?
Nope.
Carbon fuels as a share of the mix? Decreasing. Carbon fuels in absolute terms? Still growing. The "greening" headlines are a share-of-mix story. The emissions story is a volume story. They are not the same.
CARBON FUELS · SHARE OF CHINA ENERGY MIX
% of primary energy · what the headlines celebrate
CARBON FUELS · ABSOLUTE CONSUMPTION
EJ · what actually hits the atmosphere
The bottom line: China's share of carbon energy is falling ~4 points per decade. Its absolute carbon consumption has doubled over the same period. A decreasing slice of a rapidly growing pie is still a bigger slice than it was.
Source · 2025 EI Statistical Review of World Energy · China primary energy23 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART IV · GEOPOLITICS
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China's appetite for energy
In Pursuit of Self-Reliance & Dominance.
China is building an all-of-system energy position. The chart shows the scale of the buildout; the summary highlights where China is strongest, where it is still exposed, and why that matters for Canadian producers.
Primary energy consumption by source, China
Our World in Data reference · long-run system buildout
CHART-LED VIEW
The core signal is scale: China has expanded every major energy system, not just one.
BRANDED SUMMARY
China is scaling toward broad energy self-reliance, not a single-fuel strategy.
COAL
DOMINANT
Global leader in reserves, production, consumption, and imports. Coal still anchors power and heavy industry.
OIL / NGLs
WEAKNESS
China remains the top crude and NGL importer, leaving a large strategic dependence on foreign liquids supply.
NAT GAS + HYDRO
BALANCE
Gas demand has surged, while hydro remains a major domestic balancing asset for the broader power system.
RENEWABLES + NUCLEAR
BUILDOUT
China is pairing renewable manufacturing strength with one of the world’s most aggressive nuclear build programs.
TAKEAWAYS FOR CANADIAN PRODUCERS
China is building toward total energy self-reliance. Over time, that points to less need for Canadian and US crude, NGLs, and LNG, even if LNG Canada still benefits from today’s demand window.
2035
SELF-RELIANCE TARGET
Source · EI Statistical Review · IEA · BNEF · 2024/202524 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART IV · GEOPOLITICS
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EU policies vs energy realities
More Green… at a Cost.
Europe led on climate policy. The missing setup is visible in carbon allowances: policy costs climbed first, then the gas shock turned a tightening power system into a full-blown price crisis.
CARBON ALLOWANCES · €/tCO₂
2018–2026 · EU ETS reference
policy cost ratchet
POLICY SIGNAL
Carbon costs were already ratcheting higher before the 2022 gas shock. The crisis did not create Europe’s cost problem; it exposed how thin system margins amplify it.
WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY · €/MWh
2015–2025 · monthly averages · selected markets
PRE-2021 AVG
€40 / MWh
Germany baseload · 2015–2020
2022 PEAK
€470
12× pre-crisis · Russian gas cutoff
TODAY
€95 / MWh
Still ~2.5× the old baseline. The peak has passed; the cost reset remains.
Source · EMBER · EEX · Bloomberg · ENTSO-E · 2018–2026 · EU ETS + €/MWh baseload25 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART IV · GEOPOLITICS
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EU energy dependency switch
From Russia to USA With Love(?)
Europe did not eliminate energy dependence. It swapped discounted Russian pipeline gas for seaborne LNG, with the United States becoming the new swing supplier.
RUSSIAN PIPELINE FLOWS · BCM/Y
2015–2025 · major corridors + annual average
dependency unwind
EU GAS IMPORTS Q3 2025 · MILLION TONS
supplier ranking · LNG plus pipeline arrivals
DEPENDENCY SWITCH
Russian volumes collapsed, but Europe did not move to supply independence. The replacement stack now leans on imported LNG led by the United States, leaving price and geopolitical leverage in different hands rather than removing it.
Source · Bloomberg · RBC Capital Markets · Eurostat · ECONOLOG · Q3 2025 gas imports + 2015–2025 flow history26 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART IV · GEOPOLITICS
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South America situation report
South America Situation Report
The region is becoming a larger Atlantic-basin supply engine while Chinese access faces more friction across the Venezuela-to-Cuba corridor.
1
Venezuela · Maduro extracted by US forces, country vassalized, potential to restore production and expand.
2
Cuba · US disrupts crude exports from Venezuela to China via Cuba.
3
Guyana · Focus on Esequiba offshore oil without Venezuela threats.
4
Brazil · Oil growth from pre-salt pools; BRICS involvement riles US.
5
Argentina · Vaca Muerta shale development, US aligned.
Energy Outcome: Increased supply/production, China supply disrupted
S&C Am Oil Supply (mmbpd)
Upside
+6 mmbpd
over time
+6 mmbpd
over time
Source · Ostro Energy geopolitical outlook · Apr 2026 · South America regional supply view27 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART IV · GEOPOLITICS
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SE Asia situation report
SE Asia Situation Report
China, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea sit on top of the world's most exposed import corridor. The strategic read is simple: if Malacca is constrained, energy demand destruction becomes the regional risk.
SE ASIA · EXPOSURE MAP
FOUR-POINT REGIONAL READ
1
China stockpiles and expands energy buffers for Taiwan scenarios, but remains highly vulnerable to crude supply constraints.
2
Taiwan is the strategic tech hinge, under constant China threat and dependent on the US security umbrella.
3
Japan remains LNG dependent and is militarizing to counter Chinese aggression.
4
South Korea balances between China and the US while staying structurally dependent on LNG imports.
Energy Outcome: Potential demand destruction if region is isolated by kinetic conflict or blockade
Import Risk of Oil (mmbpd) and LNG (bcfpd)
Energy demand at risk
17 mmbpd Oil
28 bcfpd Gas
17 mmbpd Oil
28 bcfpd Gas
Source · Ostro Energy geopolitical outlook · Apr 2026 · SE Asia import exposure and Malacca Strait risk view28 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART IV · GEOPOLITICS
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Middle East situation report
Three Straits, One Chessboard.
Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez. 20 mmbpd of oil and 11 bcf/d of gas transit these three chokepoints.
MIDDLE EAST · KEY THEATRES & CHOKEPOINTS
1
ISRAEL
On offensive vs. Iran & proxies. Tightly aligned with UAE.
2
SOMALILAND
Israel-recognized, moving toward independence. Key port for Bab el-Mandeb traffic.
3
SAUDI ARABIA
Traditional Gulf leader. UAE challenging regionally. Recent Pakistan defense agreement.
4
UAE
Rival to KSA. Ties to Israel, Yemen, Sudan, Somaliland. Recent India agreement.
5
YEMEN
Civil war. UAE exited proxy backing. Houthis threaten Bab el-Mandeb shipping.
6
IRAN
Pariah → rogue. Mosaic command resilient. Military/commercial backing from China, Russia.
WAR RISK · TRANSIT
20 mmbpd
OIL
11 bcf/d
GAS
End of US petro-dollar is back on the table.
Source · Ostro geopolitical outlook · EIA chokepoint data · Apr 202629 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART V
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Part 05 / 05
Conclusions
& Outcomes.
Everything above, compressed into a pricing thesis. Where WTI is going. Where AECO is going. What it means for a Canadian producer in 2026.
OSTRO · APR 202630 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART V · PRICING OUTLOOK
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Market reach for Cdn production
Verdict: Landlocked, We Need US.
Most Canadian oil and gas still clear through captive North American channels, with only limited international reach.
CDN CRUDE MARKETS
Can Crude Oil Market (%sales, 2025)
CANUSAINTL
CDN GAS MARKETS
Cdn Gas Market (%sales, 2025)
CANUSAINTL
Read-through
Oil still clears 69% to the USA, with only 5% international reach. Gas remains primarily domestic and US-bound at 53% Canada and 38% USA, leaving just 9% international access.
Source · CER and public data · sales ~6 mmbbl/d, ~23 bcf/d31 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART V · PRICING OUTLOOK
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Price drivers
Crude is Global. Gas is Regional.
Crude clears on geopolitics and global supply access. Canadian gas still clears on pipe reach, weather, and whether molecules can get to the burner tip.
WTI · GLOBAL DRIVERS
Crude
GLOBAL
Core thesis
Geopolitics “trumps” fundamentals
Important factors
Access · Econ growth · Physical supply
Less important
Rig count · OPEC+ · USD
WTI · LIVE…
AECO · REGIONAL DRIVERS
Nat Gas
REGIONAL
Core thesis
All about getting to the burner tip
Important factors
US prod · Electrification · LNG exports
Less important
Green policies · Weather · Storage
AECO · LIVE…
Source · Ostro framework view of key price drivers · Apr 202632 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART V · PRICING OUTLOOK
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Iran war · crude replacement
Can NorthAm Replace the Persian Gulf?
Japanese refineries run 85% of their throughput on Gulf blends. If Hormuz closes, can Canadian + US crude fill that demand? Barrels match. Quality is the problem.
CRUDE QUALITY · API vs SULFUR
Gulf grades (red) vs NorthAm (blue) · refiner match quality
JAPAN REFINERY DIET
85%
of throughput is medium-sour Gulf blends. Murban, Arab Heavy, Basrah Heavy.
NORTHAM SUBSTITUTES
Edm. Sweet-Light (MSW)
API 39 · 0.4% S · too light
US Shale (WTI)
API 40 · 0.3% S · too light
WCS (diluted bitumen)
API 20 · 3.5% S · heavier, matches!
CDN OPPORTUNITY
WCS is the closest quality match to Arab Heavy/Basrah. TMX egress caps what we can deliver. Every incremental barrel of west-coast capacity is worth a premium in this scenario.
Source · EIA crude assay database · JODI · Japanese refiner data · 202433 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
PART V · PRICING OUTLOOK
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Pricing paths
Taleb, Applied to O&G.
Three scenario paths for WTI and AECO through 2030. Base, bull, bear. Skew is asymmetric: the bear case is shallow, the bull case is wide open. Gluts follow shortages; shortages do not always follow gluts.
WTI OUTLOOK · US$/BBL
2020–2030 · 3 scenarios
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AECO OUTLOOK · C$/GJ
2020–2030 · 3 scenarios
…
"
I've seen gluts not followed by shortages, but I've never seen a shortage not followed by a glut.
NASSIM TALEB
Source · Ostro Energy outlook · base/bull/bear scenarios · illustrative34 / 35DeckIQ by ELEV8
OSTRO ENERGY · LIVE BRIEFING
…
End of briefing · thank you
CDN.
Questions? Every chart in this deck is live and interactive. Let's dig in.
Edward Ostrowski, P.Eng.
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